Archive · 17 Nov 2025
India's Inflation Hits Record Low Driven by Statistical Base Effect
Imagine you're comparing how tall you are this year to last year.
If you were unusually tall last year, even if you didn't grow much this year, the difference looks small.
India's inflation is a bit like that right now.
The prices of things in October were very low compared to last October.
Last year, food prices were unusually high, making this year's prices look much lower in comparison.
This big difference is called the 'base effect.'
So, while prices aren't actually crashing, the way we measure inflation makes it look like they have.
Some experts think this is a good thing because it means inflation might stay stable for a while.
They also think that even though this year's base is low, prices probably won't go up much next year.
India is also planning to change how it measures prices to make it more accurate, like including free food programs and updating what people usually buy.
This will help everyone understand the real cost of living better.
India's headline inflation hit a record low of 0.25% in October, largely due to a statistical 'base effect'.
The high food prices in October of the previous year created a high comparison base, making current inflation appear lower.
While the base effect is significant, actual price momentum influenced by GST, commodity prices, and good monsoons also contributed to lower inflation.
Experts anticipate that while the current low base will impact future comparisons, food prices are unlikely to fall further, preventing an artificial inflation spike next year.
India is updating its Consumer Price Index (CPI) base year and methodology to better reflect current consumption patterns and reduce volatility, including accounting for free food schemes.
- Who
- Indian economists, Crisil, ICRA, Dipti Deshpande (Principal Economist, Crisil), Aditi Nayar (Chief Economist, ICRA), Dharmakirti Joshi (Chief Economist, Crisil), policymakers
- What
- Analysis of India's record low inflation in October, emphasizing the significant role of the statistical 'base effect' and discussing the implications of updating the CPI base year.
- When
- October, with discussion extending to future inflation trends (October 2025, October 2026) and the timeline for CPI revision.
- Where
- India
- Why
- To explain that the low inflation figure is largely due to a statistical artifact (high base effect from the previous year) rather than a drastic fall in current prices, and to discuss the need for CPI revision.
Sustained Low Inflation Due to Base Effect
Underlying Factors and Future Outlook
Explanation of Low Inflation
Sustained Low Inflation Due to Base Effect
The record low inflation of 0.25% in October is largely a statistical outcome of a high comparison base from the previous year, particularly for food prices.
Underlying Factors and Future Outlook
While the base effect significantly contributes, a portion of the decline is due to actual price momentum influenced by GST rate tweaks, subdued global commodity prices, and favorable monsoon leading to good crop output.
Future Inflation Projections
Sustained Low Inflation Due to Base Effect
The current low base will naturally put upward pressure on future year-on-year inflation prints, but since food prices are unlikely to fall further, the base effect won't artificially inflate next year's numbers.
Underlying Factors and Future Outlook
Experts caution that the sustainability of low sequential food price momentum is key, and any resurgence in food prices could impact future inflation figures, even with a low base.
CPI Base Year Revision
Sustained Low Inflation Due to Base Effect
Updating the CPI base year to a more recent period (2022-23) and potentially reducing the weight of volatile food items will lend more stability and accuracy to inflation numbers.
Underlying Factors and Future Outlook
The upcoming CPI revision is crucial to reflect the current consumption patterns, including free foodgrain programs and new consumption items, ensuring the index remains aligned with the economy's reality.
- October Headline Inflation
- 0.25% (record low since 2012)
- Inflation Measurement
- Year-on-year (YoY) basis
- Food Inflation (October)
- Remained negative for the fifth consecutive month
- Primary Driver of Recent Decline
- High base effect from previous year's food prices
- Other Contributing Factors
- GST rate tweaks, subdued global commodity prices, favorable monsoon
- Current CPI Base Year
- 2011-12
- Upcoming CPI Base Year
- 2022-23
- Key Changes in Upcoming CPI Revision
- Inclusion of free food schemes, updated consumption items, overhaul of housing index methodology
Sources
Above-normal monsoon rains to cool food prices in H2FY26, but base effects seen lifting inflation in FY27: Report
Services PMI, foreign reserve, infra output data to drive market sentiment next week