Archive · 25 Jul 2026
Fed Hike Bets Rise Amid Iran War
The Federal Reserve might raise interest rates soon because inflation is still high.
This is partly due to the war in the Middle East, which is making oil prices go up.
Some investors think rates should go up to control inflation, while others think the Fed should wait because inflation is starting to cool down.
The Fed hasn't decided yet, but many people are watching closely to see what happens next.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dipped from 18-month highs as oil prices eased.
Investors are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, which may bring a hawkish surprise.
Fed funds futures price a 36% chance of a rate hike on July 31, up from 13% a week ago.
The 2-year note yield fell to 4.331%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.683%.
New tariffs of 10% and 12.5% were imposed on goods from 60 trading partners, including the EU and China.
- Who
- Federal Reserve, Investors, U.S. Government
- What
- Potential interest rate hike amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions
- When
- July 24, 2024, ahead of the Fed's meeting on July 31
- Where
- United States
- Why
- Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and geopolitical tensions are driving up oil prices.
Hawkish Investors
Dovish Investors
Inflation Concerns
Hawkish Investors
Higher inflation due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs necessitates higher interest rates.
Dovish Investors
Moderating inflation data suggests a pause in rate hikes is warranted.
Economic Strength
Hawkish Investors
Strong economic data supports the need for higher rates to prevent overheating.
Dovish Investors
Economic indicators show mixed signals, justifying a cautious approach.
- Current Fed Funds Rate
- 3.50% to 3.75%
- Expected Rate by April
- Around 4.20%
- Chance of Rate Hike on July 31
- 36%
- 10-Year Treasury Yield
- 4.683%
- 2-Year Note Yield
- 4.331%
- Yield Curve Spread (2-10 Year)
- 34.8 basis points
- New Tariffs Imposed
- 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners