Archive · 17 Nov 2025
UBS Reiterates Sell Call on Bharat Forge, Raises Price Target Amid Mixed Outlook
A financial company called UBS thinks that the stock price of Bharat Forge, a company that makes metal parts for vehicles and defence equipment, might go down.
Even though Bharat Forge's stock has gone up recently, UBS believes it could fall by almost 12%.
UBS is telling people to 'sell' the stock and has set a target price of ₹1,230.
This is because Bharat Forge's managers said that the next few months might be slow for business, and they are seeing fewer exports to places like North America.
However, the company is also doing well in its defence and airplane parts business and plans to focus more on growing in India.
Bharat Forge has a large order book for defence equipment and expects its airplane parts business to grow very fast.
UBS reiterates a 'sell' call on Bharat Forge shares, projecting an 11.9% potential downside.
UBS raised its price target for Bharat Forge to ₹1,230 per share.
Bharat Forge management anticipates a soft third quarter with recovery expected from the fourth quarter.
The company's defence and aerospace segments showed strength, with plans to significantly increase defence revenue contribution.
Bharat Forge is prioritizing growth in its India business and evaluating restructuring of its EU steel business.
- Who
- UBS (brokerage firm) and Bharat Forge Ltd.
- What
- UBS reiterated a 'sell' call on Bharat Forge shares, raising its price target to ₹1,230 and projecting an 11.9% potential downside, citing mixed management commentary post Q2 results, including a soft Q3 outlook and declining exports to North America, while acknowledging strong defence and aerospace segments.
- When
- November 17 (UBS note); Second quarter results and earnings presentation last week; Third quarter expected to be soft, recovery from fourth quarter.
- Where
- North America (exports declining), India (business pivot, largest growing market), Europe (EU steel business restructuring)
- Why
- UBS's sell call is based on concerns about a soft third quarter, declining exports to North America, and challenging demand conditions, despite strong performance in the defence and aerospace segments and the company's strategic pivot towards India's growth.
UBS Concerns
Bharat Forge Management Outlook
Near-Term Performance and Exports
UBS Concerns
UBS highlights management's expectation of a soft third quarter, with a projected 11.9% downside in stock price, and notes the decline in exports to the North American market in the second half of FY26 due to challenging demand conditions.
Bharat Forge Management Outlook
Bharat Forge management expects recovery from the fourth quarter and is prioritizing growth in the India business, anticipating strong growth in the aerospace business and increasing the defence segment's contribution to overall revenue.
Strategic Business Focus
UBS Concerns
While UBS acknowledges healthy margins due to cost control and a strong defence segment, their report emphasizes potential decline in exports to North America.
Bharat Forge Management Outlook
The company's chairman and managing director states a strategic pivot to an India-centric business, believing India to be the largest growing market for the next 15-20 years, and is evaluating restructuring of the EU steel business.
- Company
- Bharat Forge Ltd.
- Analyst Firm
- UBS
- Call Recommendation
- Sell
- Price Target
- ₹1,230
- Projected Downside
- 11.9%
- Defence Order Book
- ₹1,100 crore (excluding ₹140 crore domestic carbine order)
- Aerospace Business Growth Expectation (FY26)
- 40%
- Defence Revenue Contribution Target (FY30)
- Mid-20s%
