Archive · 12 Oct 2026
Canada War-Games a Highly Unlikely US Invasion
Canada and the United States have long worked closely to defend North America.
But Canadian leaders are now thinking about what they would do if that relationship changed badly.
Prime Minister Mark Carney says an American attack is extremely unlikely.
He says considering it is part of being prepared for different risks.
The two countries still share military work and intelligence.
The article says President Donald Trump's words and decisions have made some Canadians less certain about the alliance.
Canada is strengthening its defences, including in the Arctic.
The article says this is about being ready for an uncertain future, not preparing to fight the United States.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada has considered the possibility of a US attack, while stressing that the risk is extremely low.
The article says Canadian planners are weighing the scenario as part of risk management, not because an invasion is considered imminent.
Canada and the United States remain closely integrated through military training, intelligence sharing and NORAD.
The article argues that President Donald Trump's rhetoric and actions have weakened assumptions underpinning the countries' longstanding alliance.
Canada is investing in continental defence, Arctic surveillance, NORAD modernisation and capabilities across several military domains.
- Who
- The Canadian government and Prime Minister Mark Carney.
- What
- Canada has considered and war-gamed the possibility of a US attack, while describing the risk as extremely low.
- When
- During Donald Trump's second presidency; no specific date is given.
- Where
- Canada and North America.
- Why
- The article says changing US rhetoric has made Canada reassess security assumptions and prepare for risks.
Reasons for heightened planning
Reasons the invasion scenario remains unlikely
How seriously to treat the possibility
Reasons for heightened planning
The article argues that Trump's rhetoric and actions have unsettled assumptions about US intentions, making it prudent for Canada to consider even an unlikely attack.
Reasons the invasion scenario remains unlikely
Carney said the risk remains extremely low and the scenario highly improbable; the article also notes that the two countries remain deeply integrated militarily.
Purpose of Canadian defence preparations
Reasons for heightened planning
The article says Canada should strengthen its ability to defend itself because dependence on another country's intentions can become a vulnerability.
Reasons the invasion scenario remains unlikely
The article emphasizes that Canada is not preparing for war with the United States, but for a world where security assumptions may be less certain.
- Canadian prime minister
- Mark Carney
- Stated likelihood
- Carney described the risk of an American attack as extremely low and the scenario as highly improbable.
- Defence partnership
- Canada and the United States share military training, intelligence and continental defence through NORAD.
- Canadian planning areas
- Continental defence, Arctic surveillance and NORAD modernisation.
- Military capabilities cited
- Land, sea, air, space and cyber.
- Article's framing
- War-gaming the scenario is presented as risk management, not evidence that an invasion is imminent.