Archive · 8 Sep 2026
Brazil Poll Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Narrowly Leads Lula Runoff
A poll measured how people might vote in Brazil’s next presidential election.
It showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a possible second-round contest.
The difference was only one percentage point.
Because the poll could be off by two points, the candidates are considered tied statistically.
In the first round, Lula had more support than Flávio Bolsonaro.
Other named candidates received smaller shares of support.
The survey questioned 2,002 people between September 4 and 7.
Brazil plans to hold the first round on October 4.
If no candidate gets more than half of the valid votes, the top two will compete on October 25.
A Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 46% to 45% in a simulated runoff.
The poll described the result as a technical tie because its two-point margin of error exceeds the one-point difference.
In the first round, Lula led with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 35%.
Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos each received 4% or more in the first-round scenario, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 2,002 people, while Brazil’s first-round vote is scheduled for October 4 and a runoff for October 25.
- Who
- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are the leading candidates in the poll; other named candidates include Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos.
- What
- A Nexus poll found Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula in a simulated runoff, while Lula led in the first-round scenario.
- When
- The report was dated September 8; the poll surveyed people from September 4 to 7. Voting is scheduled for October 4, with a possible runoff on October 25.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Runoff result
- Flávio Bolsonaro 46%; Lula 45%.
- First-round result
- Lula 39%; Flávio Bolsonaro 35%; Augusto Cury 9%; Ronaldo Caiado 4%; Renan Santos 4%.
- Pollster
- Nexus, commissioned by BTG Pactual.
- Sample size
- 2,002 people.
- Survey period
- September 4-7.
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points.
- Election dates
- First round: October 4; possible runoff: October 25.