Archive · 23 Jul 2026
Nifty Smallcap Index Shows Frequent Declines Over 20 Years
The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index has seen big drops more often than the Nifty 50 Index over the past 20 years.
In 12 out of 20 years, the small-cap index fell by more than 20% at some point during the year.
This shows that small-cap stocks can be riskier but also offer higher returns.
The study found that investing at different times can lead to very different outcomes.
For example, investing just before a big market drop, like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 crash, gave much lower returns than investing at the bottom of those drops.
However, systematic investing over a long period, like a 10-year SIP, can reduce the impact of market timing and provide steady returns.
The Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI experienced over 20% intra-year declines in 12 of the last 20 years.
The Nifty 50 TRI had similar declines in only 4 of the 20 years.
Investment outcomes varied significantly based on the entry point, with returns ranging from 8% to 31%.
A 10-year SIP in the Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI delivered a median annualized return of around 16%.
Systematic investing reduces dependence on precise market timing by spreading investments across different market cycles.
- Who
- DSP Mutual Fund
- What
- Study on Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI and Nifty 50 TRI
- When
- 2005–2025
- Where
- India
- Why
- To highlight the trade-off between higher return potential and sharper declines in small-cap investing
Market Timing Advocates
Long-Term Investors
Impact of Market Timing
Market Timing Advocates
Market timing significantly impacts investment returns, as seen with the Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI.
Long-Term Investors
Long-term investment through volatility yields better outcomes, reducing the need for precise market timing.
- Index
- Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI
- Period Analyzed
- 2005–2025
- Intra-Year Declines
- 12 out of 20 years
- Nifty 50 TRI Declines
- 4 out of 20 years
- Sample Investment
- ₹1 lakh
- Pre-2008 Crisis Return
- ~8%
- 2008 Bottom Return
- ~18%
- Pre-COVID Return
- ~19%
- COVID Bottom Return
- ~31%
- 10-Year SIP Return
- ~16%