Archive · 4 Sep 2025
UBS: US Economy Faces 93% Recession Risk by 2025
A big investment bank called UBS says the US economy might have a recession by the end of 2025.
They believe there's a 93% chance of it happening.
They see problems like an inverted yield curve, which suggests stress in the bond market, and stress in the credit markets.
Though things look risky, the economy hasn't completely crashed yet; it recovered in late 2024 but has been stagnant since February 2025.
However, indicators aren't signaling a full economic collapse.
UBS predicts a 93% chance of a US recession by the end of 2025.
The risk is described as 'stable but elevated'.
The inverted yield curve signals stress in bond markets.
Stress in credit markets contributes to the recession prediction.
The economy is stagnant but not collapsing.
- Who
- UBS Investment Bank
- What
- Predicts a high probability of recession
- When
- By the end of 2025
- Where
- United States
- Why
- Due to inverted yield curve and credit market stress
- Source
- UBS Investment Bank
- Recession Probability
- 93% by end of 2025
- Economic State
- Stable but elevated risk
- Key Indicators
- Inverted yield curve, credit market stress
