Business · Trade · 1 hr ago
Expert warns prolonged Black Sea escalation could push grain prices higher
A Kazakh grain industry expert has warned that global grain prices could rise further if tensions in the Black Sea region continue.
Countries around the Black Sea account for about 40% of global wheat trade.
Wheat prices have already risen by 20% to 30% in the past three months, according to the expert, amid Black Sea tensions and droughts in Europe and the United States.
The increase has come despite a projected surplus in wheat production, consumption and stocks for the 2026–2027 marketing year.
Higher prices could make it harder for poorer countries that depend on imported wheat to afford supplies.
Kazakhstan exported a record 14.7 million tonnes of wheat and processed products in the previous marketing year, mostly to nearby markets including Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran and China.
The expert said alternative shipping routes for Kazakh grain would cost more if exports through Russian Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports remain blocked.
Evgeny Karabanov warned that global grain prices will continue to rise if escalation in the Black Sea region is prolonged.
Countries in the Black Sea region account for about 40% of global wheat trade, according to Karabanov.
He said global wheat prices had risen by 20-30% over the previous three months, reaching their highest level since August 2023.
Karabanov said further escalation could make conditions difficult for poor countries that rely on wheat imports.
He said alternative routes for Kazakh grain would be significantly more expensive amid worsening logistics issues.
- Who
- Evgeny Karabanov, head of the analytics committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, issued the warning.
- What
- He said prolonged escalation in the Black Sea region could push global grain prices higher.
- When
- October 12, 2026.
- Where
- The Black Sea region; Karabanov spoke to TASS in Astana.
- Why
- Black Sea countries account for about 40% of global wheat trade, and escalation has destabilised available wheat supply.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
In the event of a further long-term escalation in the Black Sea region, global grain prices will continue to grow and poor countries that rely on wheat imports will find themselves in a difficult economic situation.
Exports from Black Sea countries make up around 40% of the global wheat trade, while oil exports through Hormuz account for about 20% of global trade.
Kazakhstan exported 14.7 million tons of wheat and processed products in grain equivalent during the previous marketing year.
Global wheat prices rose by 20-30%, depending on the markets, according to Karabanov.
Karabanov warned that further long-term escalation in the Black Sea region would push global grain prices higher.
- Black Sea share of global wheat trade
- About 40%
- Rise in global wheat prices
- 20-30% over the past three months
- Highest price level
- Since August 2023
- Kazakhstan wheat exports
- 14.7 million tons in the September 2025 - August 2026 marketing year
- Alternative routes
- Port of Poti in Georgia and Baltic ports
Sources
Related news
Asian shares mixed as oil falls amid Trump’s Russian diesel plan
IEA urges members to release diesel stocks faster
European markets underperform US markets
Dollar stays near 18-month high as investors watch conflict and US inflation
Brent oil rises to just below $105 after attacks near Riyadh and Hormuz
Stellantis CEO Says a Europe-US Split Is Not Plausible
Goldman Sachs raises December Brent oil forecast to $90 a barrel
SpaceX’s Starlink moves toward offering mobile phone service in the US
German bond yields and French, Italian risk premiums fall
IMF chief warns AI is reshaping jobs and public finances
Nuveen strategist sees risks to yields tilted higher
