Politics · Brazil · 10 mins ago
Quaest poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%
A Quaest poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% in Brazil’s presidential run-off race.
The two are technically tied, because the poll’s margin of error is two percentage points.
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 and older from October 17 to 20.
Flávio, a senator, finished the first round ahead of Lula, Brazil’s president, with 47.03% against 45.15% of valid votes.
The close race comes as both campaigns seek support in the final days, after a debate marked by accusations and questions about investigations.
Voters are due to choose between them on October 25.
A Quaest poll published on October 21 put Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44% in Brazil’s presidential runoff.
The one-point gap is within the poll’s two-point margin of error, indicating a technical tie.
The poll surveyed 2,154 people aged 16 or older from October 17 to 20.
Nine percent said they would cast a blank or null vote, while 2% were undecided.
In an unaided question, in which respondents were not shown candidate names, both candidates received 40%, and 14% were undecided.
- Who
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- A Quaest poll put Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44% in the presidential runoff.
- When
- Published October 21, 2026. Interviews were conducted October 17–20.
- Where
- Brazil. The poll’s geographic coverage is not stated.
- Why
- The poll measured voting intentions in the presidential runoff.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The previous Quaest poll put Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%.
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or older for the new poll.
Lula and Bolsonaro took part in a debate promoted by Band.
Quaest published the poll, putting Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%.
- Bolsonaro
- 45% of voting intentions
- Lula
- 44% of voting intentions
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points
- Interviews
- 2,154 people aged 16 or older
- Fieldwork
- October 17–20, 2026
- Poll registration
- BR-08535/2026
4 sources
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Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows ahead Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows
A 4 dias do 2º turno, Quaest mostrará o que eleitores buscam no próximo presidente
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