Business · Markets · 11 hrs ago
Top yen forecaster sees currency strengthening to 147 per dollar next year
Neil Parker expects the yen to strengthen to about 147 per dollar next year.
Parker, an economist and market strategist, is the top dollar-yen forecaster in Bloomberg’s latest rankings.
He expects the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate from 1.25% to at least 2%, while the US Federal Reserve may stop raising rates after one more increase.
That would narrow the interest-rate gap between Japan and the US, potentially making the yen more attractive to investors.
Parker’s view differs from a competing forecast that sees the yen weakening to 170 per dollar next year.
Japan’s underlying inflation measure rose 2.4% in September, and Parker said a rise to 2.6% or more could prompt a stronger response from the central bank.
The yen’s direction will depend partly on how quickly Japan raises rates, though Parker is not sure the Bank of Japan will act as soon as December.
Neil Parker, Bloomberg’s top dollar-yen forecaster in its latest rankings, expects the yen to strengthen to 147 per dollar next year.
Parker expects the yen to reach around 155 per dollar by year-end before appreciating further.
He says Japan’s interest-rate gap with the US will narrow, supporting the yen.
Parker expects the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate from 1.25% to at least 2%, possibly 2.25%.
The outlook differs sharply from that of Bloomberg’s top forecaster in the previous quarter, who sees the yen weakening to as far as 170 per dollar next year.
- Who
- Neil Parker, head of economics and market strategy at TTT Moneycorp Limited.
- What
- He forecasts the yen will strengthen to 147 per dollar next year as the Japan-US interest-rate gap narrows.
- When
- The forecast was reported on November 9, 2026; Parker expects the yen to reach around 155 per dollar by year-end before strengthening further next year.
- Where
- Japan and the United States are central to the forecast; the currency rate is expressed in yen per US dollar.
- Why
- Parker expects Japanese interest rates to rise while the Federal Reserve’s rate increases end, narrowing the gap between the countries’ rates.
Neil Parker
Bloomberg’s top forecaster in the previous quarter
Forecast for the yen next year
Neil Parker
Parker expects it to strengthen to 147 per dollar.
Bloomberg’s top forecaster in the previous quarter
The previous quarter’s top forecaster sees it weakening as far as 170 per dollar.
Japan’s interest-rate outlook
Neil Parker
Parker expects the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate to at least 2%, potentially 2.25%.
Bloomberg’s top forecaster in the previous quarter
Not stated.
Parker began his career in financial markets.
The yen weakened to as far as 163.99 per dollar before Japanese and US authorities intervened.
Japan’s consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy advanced 2.4%.
Mint reported Parker’s forecast that the yen would strengthen to 147 per dollar next year.
- Parker’s forecast
- 147 yen per dollar next year
- Year-end forecast
- Around 155 yen per dollar
- Bank of Japan benchmark rate
- 1.25%, with Parker expecting at least 2% and potentially 2.25%
- US Federal Reserve rate outlook
- Parker expects one more increase in December, then rates around 4.00-4.25%
- Underlying inflation measure
- 2.4% in September
- Yen low in July
- 163.99 per dollar
What people are saying
Japan may prove to be an outlier in terms of the Bank of Japan actually delivering on its promise to bring interest rates into line with where inflation is
Investors aren’t necessarily going to become overweight in Japanese assets
They just need to be less underweight.
One thing I do is I try and block out a lot of the noise