Business · Energy & Commodities · 1 hr ago
Oil Rebounds as US Election Results and Iran War Shift Market Expectations
Brent crude rose 4% to $98.38 a barrel on Thursday, reversing a four-session decline.
The move came a day after Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress, creating a potential check on President Donald Trump’s administration.
Investors reassessed the chance of a US-Iran peace deal after the election, but Eurasia Group lowered its estimate of a negotiated agreement to 10% from 20%.
Iran’s navy said a tanker struck a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire, while the group put the chance of renewed US strikes at 60%.
More oil exports from Gulf producers pushed regional supply into surplus for the first time since July, with shipments from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rising 10% in October.
That surplus means near-term oil supply is greater than demand in the Middle East market, even as wider tensions support prices.
Democratic committee chairs plan investigations from January into the administration’s energy dealings, including oil concessions and cancelled projects.
Oil prices and energy stocks may continue to respond to developments in the Iran conflict, US policy and regional supply.
Oil prices rose on Thursday after a four-session decline, with Brent gaining 4.0% to $98.38 per barrel and WTI rising 2.9% to $90.65.
The rebound followed Democrats’ sweep of both chambers of Congress and a shift in expectations about the Iran war.
Investors’ bets that the election result would push the Trump administration toward a peace deal with Iran faded.
Eurasia Group lowered its odds of a negotiated agreement to 10% from 20% and put the likelihood of renewed U.S. strikes at 60%.
Middle East physical oil supply also increased, with shipments from four Arab Gulf producers up 10% in October.
- Who
- Oil traders and investors, responding to U.S. election results and developments in the Iran war.
- What
- Oil prices rebounded after falling for four sessions. Brent rose 4.0% and WTI gained 2.9%.
- When
- Thursday, November 5, 2026, according to the article’s publication date and description of Thursday’s trading.
- Where
- In global oil markets, amid U.S. political developments and tensions near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Why
- Expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace deal weakened, while Iran’s navy reported that a tanker had struck a mine and caught fire.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Brent plunged 8.7% as markets priced in the possibility that the election setback would push the Trump administration toward a peace deal with Iran.
Brent rose 4.0% to $98.38 per barrel and WTI gained 2.9% to $90.65.
Eurasia Group cut its odds of a negotiated agreement with Iran to 10% from 20% and put the likelihood of renewed U.S. strikes at 60%.
Democratic committee chairs are set to use their subpoena powers to investigate the administration’s energy dealings.
- Brent crude
- $98.38 per barrel, up 4.0% on Thursday
- WTI crude
- $90.65 per barrel, up 2.9% on Thursday
- Negotiated Iran agreement odds
- 10%, down from 20% according to Eurasia Group
- Renewed U.S. strikes likelihood
- 60% according to Eurasia Group
- Arab Gulf exports
- 15.53 million barrels per day in October, up 10%
- Iranian crude exports
- No exports recorded for a second month under the U.S. naval blockade
What people are saying
It’s clear there’s hesitancy here in bringing these barrels onshore just because of the implications of doing so
the conflict has been worth it