Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
Lula’s campaign promises a gradual fiscal improvement without social cuts
Lula was projected to win re-election in Brazil on Sunday, giving him a fourth term, according to a Datafolha projection cited in the campaign coverage.
His official plan largely promises to continue the current government’s economic approach.
It says the primary fiscal result would improve gradually over four years without cuts to social programs.
The plan links lower interest rates and fiscal policy to economic growth, and points to infrastructure, ecological transition and domestic demand as ways to support it.
The plan promises to keep the current fiscal framework, but does not set a fiscal target or explain in detail how interest rates would fall.
It also does not address concerns about rising public debt compared with the size of the economy or the challenge of sustaining growth.
The government’s budget proposal forecasts a surplus rising to 1.5% of GDP by 2030, while campaign pledges include monitoring family and business debt and improving rules for lending; the next steps depend on policies during Lula’s new term.
Lula’s campaign proposals point to a modest improvement in the primary fiscal balance over the next four years without cuts to social programs.
The proposals include keeping the current fiscal framework and using a mix of measures to slow the growth of mandatory spending and secure revenue.
The government’s proposed targets project a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2027, rising to 1.5% by 2030.
The campaign says economic growth would support lower interest rates and its fiscal strategy, but the plan does not explain how rates would fall.
Lula was projected by Datafolha to defeat Flávio Bolsonaro and win re-election on Sunday, October 25.
- Who
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and members of his campaign.
- What
- The campaign promises gradual improvement in the primary fiscal balance over four years without cuts to social programs.
- When
- During the 2026 election campaign; the article was published October 26, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The campaign says economic growth can support its fiscal strategy and create conditions for sustained interest-rate reductions.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Family delinquency on freely granted credit reached a record 8%, according to Brazil's central bank.
The government announced Desenrola 3, its third debt renegotiation program in three years.
Planning Minister Bruno Moretti told Folha that the projected fiscal plan would amount to savings of R$250 billion over four years.
Datafolha projected that Lula had defeated Flávio Bolsonaro and been re-elected.
- Projected primary surplus in 2027
- 0.5% of GDP
- Projected primary surplus in 2030
- 1.5% of GDP
- Projected savings over four years
- R$250 billion
- Interest rate cited in article
- Selic at 13.75% a year
- Family delinquency on free-credit loans
- 8% in August
What people are saying
A taxa de juros é hoje o que a inflação foi no passado no Brasil: promove concentração de renda e desorganiza a nossa economia
criar as condições para uma redução sustentada das taxas de juros, com inflação controlada e assegurando uma política fiscal responsável