Business · Economy · 10 hrs ago
India's government debt ratio projected to fall to 75.1% by 2031-32
RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said India's government debt ratio is expected to fall over the coming years.
The projection takes the ratio from 84.3% of GDP in 2025-26 to 75.1% in 2031-32.
India is the only one of nine emerging economies with GDP above $1 trillion expected to reduce its ratio between 2025 and 2031.
The outlook reflects economic growth projected to outpace the interest cost of government debt, alongside efforts to narrow the deficit.
By contrast, global public debt is projected to rise from 94% of GDP in 2025 to nearly 102% in 2031, potentially leaving governments less room to respond to economic shocks.
The forecast depends on growth, borrowing costs and continued fiscal consolidation in the years ahead.
India’s general government debt ratio is projected to fall from 84.3% of GDP in 2025-26 to 75.1% in 2031-32, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said.
India is projected to be the only one of nine emerging economies with GDP above $1 trillion to reduce its debt ratio between 2025 and 2031.
Gupta attributed the outlook to fiscal consolidation and nominal GDP growth projected at about 11% a year, above an effective government debt interest rate of around 7%.
India’s debt is largely long-term, denominated in domestic currency and held within the country, limiting refinancing risks, she said.
The IMF projections cited by Gupta show global public debt rising from 94% of GDP in 2025 to nearly 102% in 2031.
- Who
- RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta presented the projection.
- What
- India’s general government debt ratio is projected to fall to 75.1% of GDP by 2031-32, from 84.3% in 2025-26.
- When
- Gupta spoke on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. The projected decline covers 2025 to 2031.
- Where
- At the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit.
- Why
- Gupta cited fiscal consolidation and nominal GDP growth projected to exceed the effective interest rate on government debt.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
India’s general government debt ratio is projected at 84.3% of GDP.
Gupta presented the projections at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit.
India’s general government debt ratio is projected to fall to 75.1% of GDP.
- Projected debt ratio in 2025-26
- 84.3% of GDP
- Projected debt ratio in 2031-32
- 75.1% of GDP
- Nominal GDP growth projection
- About 11% a year
- Effective interest rate on government debt
- Around 7%
- General government capital expenditure in 2025-26
- 5.8% of GDP
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What people are saying
Nominal GDP growth is projected to average about 11% a year through 2031-32, compared with an effective interest rate of around 7% on government debt.
India is projected to be the only emerging market economy among nine economies with gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding USD 1 trillion to reduce its government debt-to-GDP ratio between 2025 and 2031