Business · Markets · 1 hr ago
JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin could outpace stocks, with high volatility risk
JPMorgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin to its long-term forecasts for the first time.
The firm estimates Bitcoin could deliver 10% annualised returns over the next decade, more than stocks, bonds and gold.
But its forecast also assumes annual volatility of 55%, over three times that of US large-cap stocks.
JPMorgan is not adding Bitcoin to its main portfolio models because its relationship with other assets has been unstable.
Large price swings can reduce compounded returns, since losses require bigger gains to recover.
Bitcoin investors who bought near its 2025 peak of just over $126,000 later saw holdings fall by as much as 50% as prices retreated.
JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time.
The firm forecasts annualised Bitcoin returns of 10% over the next decade in its base case.
It also assumes annual volatility of 55%, more than three times that of US large-cap stocks.
JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its main portfolio models, citing unstable correlations with other assets.
Bitcoin investors who bought near its 2025 peak of just over $126,000 later saw holdings lose as much as 50%.
- Who
- JPMorgan Asset Management.
- What
- It forecasts Bitcoin could return 10% annually over the next decade, while warning of high volatility.
- When
- The assumptions were reported in a report this week, published on 2026-10-21.
- Where
- Not stated.
- Why
- The firm cited Bitcoin’s high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets as risks.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Wall Street firms have been making more earnest inroads into cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin reached a peak of just over $126,000 before prices retreated.
JPMorgan’s report set out its long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin.
- Forecast return
- 10% annualised over the next decade
- Assumed volatility
- 55% annually
- Comparison
- More than three times the volatility of US large-cap stocks
- Portfolio models
- Bitcoin is not included in JPMorgan’s main portfolio models
- 2025 peak
- Just over $126,000