Politics · United States · 3 hrs ago
Forecaster sees GOP House chances fading as battleground races tighten
A leading election forecaster says Republicans have little realistic chance of keeping the US House in the coming midterm elections.
David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats and moved Ohio’s governor race from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat.
He says the main question is how large a Democratic wave will be, not whether Republicans can hold the chamber.
But private polling from mid-October shows Republicans gaining ground in parts of the Midwest and narrowing some races, including in Colorado.
Republican campaign spending also appears to be helping protect some vulnerable seats in Florida, while the party faces serious challenges in North Carolina and Texas.
Democrats are privately warning against expecting a huge majority, and some doubt they will reach the 235 seats they won after the 2018 elections.
The election will decide which party controls the House, with the scale of any shift still uncertain.
David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report says Republicans have little realistic chance of holding the House.
Wasserman says 19 House races have shifted toward Democrats and the Ohio governor’s race has moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat.
Politico reports that mid-October polling shows Republicans gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing some races.
Republicans’ spending appears to be helping shore up some Florida seats, while the party faces serious problems in North Carolina and Texas.
Some Democrats are privately tempering expectations about winning a House majority as the battleground tightens.
- Who
- David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report says Republicans have little realistic chance of holding the House. Both parties are contesting House battlegrounds.
- What
- Wasserman shifted 19 House races toward Democrats and moved the Ohio governor’s race from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat. Politico reports that polling shows a tighter battlefield.
- When
- The articles were published on October 23, 2026. The polling described by Politico was from the middle of October.
- Where
- The races include House battlegrounds across the United States, including Ohio, the Midwest, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Texas.
- Why
- Wasserman describes a possible Democratic “blue wave.” Politico reports that Republican gains in some races and spending in Florida are tightening the contest.
David Wasserman
Democrats tempering expectations
House outlook
David Wasserman
Wasserman says Republicans do not “realistically” have a chance to hold the House.
Democrats tempering expectations
Some Democrats privately caution that they may not reach a 235-seat majority, while one House Democrat says the results could be “all over the place.
Republicans gerrymandered North Carolina, Texas and Florida in their favor during a round of redistricting.
Internal polling showed Republicans gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing some races, according to people familiar with the data.
Wasserman said Republicans do not realistically have a chance to hold the House and shifted 19 House races toward Democrats.
- House races shifted
- 19 toward Democrats
- Ohio governor’s race
- Moved from Toss-Up to Leans Democrat
- Florida
- Republican spending appears to be helping shore up some imperiled seats
- North Carolina and Texas
- States where Republicans face serious problems
- Democratic majority benchmark
- 235 seats, the height of the party’s majority following the 2018 elections
3 sources
What people are saying
This is a question of how high this blue wave is going to go and how many Republican seats get swept up.
I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.