Business · Markets · 16 hrs ago
Brazil faces R$1.8 trillion in domestic debt refinancing over the next year
Brazil’s Treasury must refinance R$1.8 trillion in domestic debt over the next 12 months, out of R$9 trillion in domestic debt.
Between September 2025 and September 2026, the share of short-term debt linked to a floating rate rose from 32.5% to 58.7%, while the share with fixed rates fell.
That shift leaves government borrowing costs more exposed to the Selic, Brazil’s key interest rate, which the story puts at 13.75% a year.
The change comes as total public debt, including external debt, rose to R$9.38 trillion from R$8.12 trillion.
A smaller reserve cushion now covers 7.7 months of repayments, down from 9.3 months, leaving less room to manage stress without issuing new debt.
The average term of newly issued government debt also shortened from 5.5 years to 4.6 years, indicating less appetite for longer-term lending.
The Treasury will need to keep refinancing debt in the market, where shorter borrowing terms and interest-rate changes can affect its costs.
Brazil’s National Treasury must refinance R$1.8 trillion in domestic debt over the next 12 months, according to Folha.
The amount is part of R$9 trillion in domestic debt.
The share of short-term domestic debt linked to floating rates rose from 32.5% in September 2025 to 58.7% in September 2026.
The share of short-term debt due within 12 months increased from 18.9% to 20.4%.
The Treasury’s liquidity reserve reached R$1.3 trillion, but its coverage fell from 9.3 months of maturities to 7.7 months.
- Who
- Brazil’s National Treasury.
- What
- It must refinance R$1.8 trillion in domestic debt over the next 12 months.
- When
- Over the 12 months following September 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- The debt is coming due and must be refinanced.
Investors
The government
Confidence
Investors
Investors are wary of Brazil’s fiscal outlook and sustainability of public finances, according to Livio Ribeiro.
The government
The government is betting that the market is wrong and that accepting very high fixed rates now is not worthwhile.
Financing strategy
Investors
Investors are demanding high premiums for longer-term debt, Ribeiro said.
The government
The government prefers short-term debt linked to the Selic rate, hoping for future fiscal and monetary coordination.
Floating-rate securities made up 32.5% of domestic debt due within 12 months.
The share of floating-rate securities due within 12 months reached 58.7%.
The Treasury was facing rates of nearly 8% a year, plus inflation, on bonds maturing in 2032.
- Refinancing due
- R$1.8 trillion over the next 12 months
- Domestic debt
- R$9 trillion
- Floating-rate share of short-term debt
- 58.7% in September 2026
- Total public debt
- R$9.38 trillion in September 2026
- Liquidity reserve
- R$1.3 trillion; coverage of 7.7 months of maturities
1 source
What people are saying
The market distrusts the State's fiscal condition more than the government wants to acknowledge and demands excessively high premiums on longer terms.
Putting more than half of the public debt in floating-rate securities is a terrible risk signal.