Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 21 hrs ago
A 1960 population model wrongly put humanity’s limit in 2026
In 1960, physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot published a population study in Science.
Using historical population figures, they projected growth would reach infinity on November 13, 2026.
The date was a mathematical limit in their model, not a claim that the world would literally end that day.
The calculation assumed the rapid growth seen in the past would continue, but world population growth began slowing in the mid-1960s.
Lower birth rates in many regions helped make the study’s projection diverge from reality.
The model’s failure shows why past trends are not fixed laws and why projections depend on assumptions that can change.
The study’s lesson also applies to predictions about falling birth rates and artificial intelligence, though no specific next step is reported.
A 1960 model projected that the world’s population would approach infinity on 13 November 2026 if past growth trends continued.
The model was developed by physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot, and published in Science.
The projection did not come true because global population growth slowed, with birth rates declining in many regions.
The story is cited as a warning against treating historical trends as unchanging laws.
The date was a mathematical result, not a scientifically established prediction of the end of the world.
- Who
- Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot developed the model.
- What
- Their model projected that population would approach infinity on 13 November 2026 if its observed growth trend continued.
- When
- The study was published in 1960 and set 13 November 2026 as its theoretical limit.
- Where
- The study appeared in the journal Science.
- Why
- The researchers extrapolated historical population growth trends into the future.
The study’s authors
Critics of the study
Basis of projection
The study’s authors
The authors used historical population estimates to model accelerating growth and defended their calculations.
Critics of the study
Mathematicians and demographers called the work “ridiculous” and “manifestly absurd.
Interpretation
The study’s authors
The authors argued that human cooperation could allow population growth to accelerate.
Critics of the study
Critics challenged the model; later demographic changes showed that its growth assumptions did not continue.
Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot published their population model in Science.
Global population growth began to slow, according to ANSA Latina.
The world’s population began falling below the model’s projected curve, according to DW.com.
The model’s projected date for population to approach infinity arrives; the articles explain that this was a conditional mathematical result, not a literal doomsday prediction.
- Study year
- 1960
- Journal
- Science
- Study authors
- Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot
- Projected date
- 13 November 2026
- Historical estimates used
- 24 estimates covering the previous 2,000 years
- UN population projection
- A peak near 10.3 billion in 2084, followed by a decline, according to El Tiempo