Business · Economy · 16 hrs ago
CNI cuts Brazil's 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%
Brazil's National Confederation of Industry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.6%, down from 2%.
The group expects industry growth to slow to 1.3%, with manufacturing alone forecast to shrink 0.7%, as high borrowing costs and softer domestic demand weigh on activity.
Services growth is now forecast at 1.6%, while agriculture is expected to grow 2.5%, helped by prospects for a stronger second corn crop.
The CNI also expects inflation to reach 5.15% and the Selic interest rate to end the year at 13.25%.
It forecasts unemployment will fall to 5% and exports will rise, but public debt will climb to 83.7% of GDP.
These are forecasts for 2026; the CNI expects the economy to grow more slowly as high rates put pressure on businesses and consumers.
Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI) cut its forecast for economic growth in 2026 from 2% to 1.6%.
The revision reflects weaker expected performance in manufacturing and services, amid high interest rates and slower domestic demand.
CNI expects manufacturing output to fall 0.7% and services to grow 1.6% in 2026.
It raised its forecast for agriculture growth from 1.8% to 2.5%, citing prospects for the second corn crop.
CNI forecasts inflation of 5.15% and a year-end Selic rate of 13.25% in 2026.
- Who
- Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry (CNI).
- What
- It cut its forecast for Brazil’s economic growth in 2026 from 2% to 1.6%.
- When
- The forecast was reported on October 28, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- CNI expects weaker manufacturing and services, pressured by high interest rates and slower domestic demand.
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- GDP growth forecast
- 1.6% in 2026, down from 2%
- Manufacturing output
- Forecast to fall 0.7% in 2026
- Services growth
- Forecast at 1.6% in 2026, down from 1.9%
- Agriculture growth
- Forecast at 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.8%
- Inflation forecast
- 5.15% in 2026
- Selic rate
- Forecast to end 2026 at 13.25% a year