Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Economist warns some Australian suburbs could see house prices fall 40%
Economist Chris Joye warns Australian house prices could fall sharply, with declines of up to 40% in some Sydney suburbs.
He forecasts a 17% peak-to-trough fall in Sydney and a 13% fall nationally, while warning that Australia faces a genuine risk of recession.
The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates four times this year, taking its cash rate to 4.6% in September, and another increase could follow.
Higher borrowing costs can make homes harder to afford and are one reason buyers are holding back.
Other experts expect a smaller 8% to 11% price fall, and housing values were already down 5.2% from their March peak, according to Cotality.
Their survey suggests prices may not begin recovering until September 2027.
The Reserve Bank says it is prepared to accept falling prices and a weaker job market to bring inflation under control.
Economist Chris Joye warned that some Sydney suburbs could see house prices fall by 20 to 40 per cent.
He forecast a 17 per cent peak-to-trough fall in Sydney and a 13 per cent fall nationally.
Joye said the housing downturn could coincide with a recession, rising unemployment and business failures.
The Reserve Bank raised its cash rate to 4.6 per cent on September 29, and further increases remained possible.
A survey of 384 real estate experts projected property prices would fall by 8 to 11 per cent from their March peak.
- Who
- Chris Joye, founder and chief investment officer at Coolabah Capital Investments, issued the warning.
- What
- He forecast house price falls of as much as 20 to 40 per cent in some Sydney suburbs, alongside a possible recession.
- When
- He made the remarks during an appearance on Mark Bouris' Straight Talk podcast on Monday; the article was published on October 14, 2026.
- Where
- Australia, with the steepest forecast suburb falls in Sydney.
- Why
- Joye linked the outlook to a property downturn and warned of recession risks; the sources do not give a specific cause for his forecast.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.6 per cent at its meeting.
Chris Joye made his forecasts during an appearance on Mark Bouris' Straight Talk podcast.
The West Australian published its report on Joye's warning.
The Daily Mail published its report on the warning.
- Forecast for some Sydney suburbs
- 20 to 40 per cent decline
- Sydney peak-to-trough forecast
- 17 per cent
- National peak-to-trough forecast
- 13 per cent
- Reserve Bank cash rate
- 4.6 per cent
- Survey size
- 384 real estate experts
2 sources
What people are saying
On our numbers, individual suburbs (in Sydney) will fall as much as 20 to 40 per cent
I think it's going to be tough,
People are worried about more interest rate hikes on the horizon, and they are after greater clarity