S&P sees Türkiye weathering energy shock if policies stay tight

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  S&P says Türkiye can withstand the energy price shock from the Middle East war if authorities maintain tight monetary and wage-setting policies and avoid further depleting foreign exchange reserves.

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  The agency forecasts inflation will average 30.9 percent this year and 21.7 percent in 2027.

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  It projects economic growth will slow to 3 percent this year, from 3.7 percent in 2025, before returning to 3.7 percent in 2027.

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  S&P expects the budget deficit to approach 3 percent of GDP this year, while public debt remains below 30 percent of GDP.

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  S&P last affirmed Türkiye’s BB-/B sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook in April and did not publish a review on its scheduled assessment date of Oct. 16.

Who

S&P Global Ratings.

What

It says Türkiye can weather the energy price shock if authorities maintain tight policies and avoid further depleting foreign exchange reserves.

When

The reports were published on Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, 2026.

Where

Türkiye.

Why

S&P’s stable outlook reflects its assessment that Türkiye can withstand the shock under the stated policy conditions.

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