Politics · Brazil · 2 hrs ago
Gerp poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Brazil runoff
Gerp's poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a second-round Brazilian presidential contest.
It gives Bolsonaro, a senator from the PL party, 53% of valid votes, compared with 47% for Lula, of the PT party.
The six-point difference is larger than the poll's two-point margin of error, so the candidates' estimated ranges do not overlap.
In Gerp's previous poll, Bolsonaro had 52% and Lula 48%; both one-point changes are within the margin of error.
Gerp surveyed 2,400 voters by phone from October 19 to 21, with a stated confidence level of 95.55%.
The poll measures voter intentions, not an election result, and no next step is stated.
A Gerp poll puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a Brazilian presidential runoff scenario.
Among valid votes, Bolsonaro has 53% and Lula has 47%, a six-point gap.
The poll was conducted by telephone with 2,400 voters from October 19 to 21.
Its margin of error is two percentage points, and its confidence level is 95.55%.
The survey was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-03835/2026.
- Who
- Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- What
- A Gerp poll puts Bolsonaro ahead, with 53% of valid votes to Lula’s 47%.
- When
- The survey was conducted from October 19 to 21, 2026, and was released on October 21.
- Where
- Brazil. Interviews were conducted by telephone.
- Why
- Not stated
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Gerp’s previous poll was released; it put Bolsonaro at 52% and Lula at 48% of valid votes, according to InfoMoney.
Gerp interviewed 2,400 voters by telephone.
Gerp released its new poll, showing Bolsonaro with 53% and Lula with 47% of valid votes.
- Valid votes
- Bolsonaro 53%; Lula 47%
- Difference
- 6 percentage points
- Sample
- 2,400 voters
- Fieldwork
- October 19–21, 2026
- Margin of error
- 2 percentage points
- Registration
- BR-03835/2026