Science & Tech · Science & Environment · 1 hr ago
2026 on track to be second-hottest year on record, EU monitor says
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service says 2026 is likely to be the second-hottest year on record.
It also says there is a 20% chance the year will match or exceed 2024, the warmest on record.
A strong El Niño is adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.
Global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year, Copernicus says.
The average temperature across 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C, the limit countries set as a goal in the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst climate impacts.
October was the warmest on record, with global surface air temperatures 1.75°C above the 1850-1900 average.
Nations are due to meet in Turkey for COP31 on Nov.
9 for a two-week UN climate summit.
Copernicus says 2026 is most likely to be the second-hottest year on record.
The year has a 20% chance of tying or exceeding 2024, the warmest year on record.
Global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026.
The average temperature for 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C.
October was the warmest October on record, with global surface air temperatures 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
Copernicus says an exceptionally strong El Niño is adding heat to human-driven global warming.
- Who
- The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service issued the assessment. Samantha Burgess commented on the findings.
- What
- 2026 is on track to be the second-hottest year on record and is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- When
- The assessment was reported on November 6, 2026.
- Where
- Globally.
- Why
- An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding heat to the climate already warmed by human activities.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Global surface air temperatures averaged 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest October on record.
Copernicus said 2026 was most likely to be the second-hottest year on record.
Nations were due to begin a two-week UN COP31 climate summit in Turkey.
- Rank forecast
- Second-hottest year on record
- Chance of matching or exceeding 2024
- 20%
- Global temperature threshold
- Virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026
- Four-year average
- 2023–2026 expected to exceed 1.5°C
- October global surface air temperature
- 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels
- COP31 location
- Turkey
3 sources
What people are saying
October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures
An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities