Politics · Spain · 4 hrs ago
CIS poll puts Spain's PSOE 11.8 points ahead of the PP
Spain's October CIS poll puts the PSOE at 34% and the conservative PP at 22.2% ahead of the 29 November general election.
The poll also gives Vox 17.1%, while Sumar/Frente Amplio gets 6.1% and Podemos 3.1%.
The survey was conducted in early October, after a high-profile eviction and the defeat in parliament of two government housing measures.
Political scientist Pablo Simón says the CIS sample may lean left, noting that its surveys have, on average, seven points more support for left-wing parties than right-wing ones.
He also says the CIS barometer records direct answers about voting intention without adjusting them to estimate how people will vote, and suggests right-wing voters may be more likely not to answer.
Other polls point to a different result, with private surveys generally predicting a lead for the PP and its allies; the CIS poll does not translate its vote estimates into seats.
The findings come as housing is the most commonly named problem in Spain, and the CIS asked respondents about the eviction and housing policies.
Spain’s CIS polling institute said the PSOE would win 34% of the vote, putting it 11.8 percentage points ahead of the PP.
The October barometer put the PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%.
The poll was conducted in early October, ahead of general elections scheduled for 29 November.
Its findings differ from most recent private polls, which forecast a PP lead.
Political scientist Pablo Simón said the CIS result may reflect a sample bias that gives left-wing parties more support.
- Who
- Spain’s Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) published the poll. It puts the PSOE ahead of the PP.
- What
- The October poll estimates 34% support for the PSOE and 22.2% for the PP.
- When
- Published on 14 October 2026. The poll was conducted from 1 to 6 October.
- Where
- Spain.
- Why
- The poll measures voting intentions ahead of the general election scheduled for 29 November.
CIS October barometer
Recent private polls
Estimated vote share
CIS October barometer
The CIS put the PSOE at 34% and the PP at 22.2%.
Recent private polls
Recent private polls forecast a PP lead over the PSOE.
Forecast context
CIS October barometer
The CIS estimates voting intentions but does not translate them into seat totals.
Recent private polls
A 40dB poll for Cadena SER and EL PAÍS put the PP at 31.9% and the PSOE at 28.1%.
Maricarmen was evicted, according to El Mundo.
The government’s two housing decrees were rejected in Congress, according to El Mundo.
The CIS conducted its October barometer, according to La Vanguardia.
Pedro Sánchez announced an early election, according to El Mundo.
The CIS published its October barometer.
- PSOE estimate
- 34%
- PP estimate
- 22.2%
- Lead
- 11.8 percentage points
- Vox estimate
- 17.1%
- Survey sample
- 5,025 interviews
- Election date
- 29 November
5 sources
La explicación de Pablo Simón a los resultados "desviados" del CIS que sitúan al PSOE a 11,8 puntos del PP
El CIS de Tezanos dispara hasta los 11,8 puntos la ventaja del PSOE sobre el PP tras el desahucio de Maricarmen y la convocatoria electoral
El PSOE aumenta la distancia sobre el PP hasta los 11,8 puntos tras la convocatoria electoral, según el CIS
El CIS sitúa al PSOE a 12 puntos de ventaja del PP en unas elecciones, en plena crisis de la vivienda
What people are saying
There is a sample-origin bias.
We have detected that, in general, CIS samples have an average of seven points more voting intention for the left than for the right.